Blog Banter #56: Last refuge

Blog Banter 56

With Kornos and the upcoming industry changes following 6 weeks behind it, things are set for a vast upheaval in the coming months. Before he packed his bags and left Mord Fiddle asked some interesting questions:

The common wisdom in EVE Online is that, beyond the odd high-value moon or Faction Warfare scam, there's little in low sec or NPC null sec to the attract ongoing attention of the big-dogs of null sec, with their large fleets and super cap doctrines. It's assumed that NPC space simply isn't worth the bother of controlling even if one could control it.
Is this about to change?
The shift in industrial inefficiencies from high sec to NPC low sec/null sec has begun, adding value to NPC space outside of high sec. In the recent B0TLRD accords CFC claimed two NPC null sec regions, Venal and Syndicate, as part of the CFC sphere of influence.
What is the future of low sec and NPC null sec as the economic center of gravity shifts from high sec toward null sec?

Also, you can take this banter as a chance to discuss the ramifications of the style of play in low sec and NPC null sec if it does happen that major industry shifts there.

***

It's hard for me to write about low-sec.

Null-sec is relatively easy, as it generally comes down to politics and resource management. Hi-sec as well, since it's static and is the eternal anvil New Eden's industry hammers on. Wormholes have enough mysteries to keep the most prolific poets happy.

But Low-sec defies purpose and easy definition. And it is the only place for a capsuleer such as me.

First, lets discuss the wealth of Low-sec, or at least the income available there:

• Unique belt rats (Tags/New Mordu's Legion)
• Exploration sites
• Randomly placed high end ores (new)
• Faction warfare loyalty store

The one common theme for all these income sources is lack of stability, and predictability. Even the militia pilot bent on farming loyalty points will find themselves hunted down by pirates and opposing militia forces. Valuable belt rats rarely appear in the same place twice. Exploration sites are, well, random by nature.

This hints to low-sec's true purpose, whether by design or happy accident. Let me explain.

Every other sector of space has one common theme: stability.

Regardless of their outward personas, every action in null, high and even wormholes is towards this goal. They all have a deep desire to make their space more safe, more stable, and more predictable. Wormholers may claim otherwise, but in the next breath they will discuss the best way to collapse a wormhole. Warp bubbles, CONCORD, and intelligence channels all serve the same purpose: make my space safer, and more predictable.

Most attempts to stabilize low-sec have failed. The Empires themselves send their militias and navies to lay claim to this lawless part of space, and have become locked in an eternal struggle with only mercenaries and pirates profiting from it.

Most low-sec residents rebel against authority. It is in this space, almost exclusively, where you will find the independent fighter. The ones who dare to fly solo, without 15-ship 'micro-gangs', as they do in Null-sec. There is no certainty when you fly alone. Every encounter is different, as everyone with a ship is likely to test you.

Low-sec is a place where you never know what you're going to get. The next jump could bring fortune or death, or both. It is the unknown, and nothing you can build will alter that. There is adventure to be had, even with something as monotonous as mining.

It is not for people who expect to see steady growth of income. It is not for people looking to raise flags. It is not somewhere you can develop for farming. Null-sec entities cannot put up their walls, plow their ratting fields and hoist their standards.

To answer that question: Null-sec alliances can't use low-sec because it is NOT about economics. It never has been.

It is for people who value experience over income. For whom the white hot thrill of discovery is more important than the comfort of the every day. For whom curiosity is a compulsion that can't be ignored.

The pilot that barrels his Rifter into a dog-fight, for the one-in-a-million chance he may succeed. The miner who toys with pirates and dances in their scanners to claim her ores. The smuggler, sneaking wares past gate camps and opportunist hunters, in nothing more than an industrial ship. These are the residents of low-sec.

So what will happen to low-sec with the upcoming changes? Not much. The industrial changes do little to alleviate the chaotic nature of low-sec. The kind of capsuleer that makes his way here will still be the same; the adventurous and bold.

It is the last refuge of adventure.

From the writer: If you don't hear from me...

I don't usually like to break character. This blog is Behnid's, and New Eden is his world, and I try not to negatively impact that life in the same way as I don't let in-game frustrations spill over into the real world.

But, obviously, real world events can have significant impacts on virtual ones.

I'm an expat living in Vietnam. Right now, things are tense between my adopted country and China over an oil rig in the South China Sea. If you're not sure why, open up any international news. It's being fairly well covered (and I try to keep my links on this site to useful Eve things). Whilst we're not in the middle of it, the resulting riots in 'Nam are worryingly close to home.

I don't want to get into a mud slinging match about which country is in the right, or stir up any nationalistic feelings. As Behnid, I'd probably hop into a frigate, and go hunt some miners, then lament the fact I won't let myself get relatively easy kill-mails. As me, I'd rather everyone just drop the whole matter, so we can all go back to making money.

Don't let online personas fool you. We're all PvE care bears at heart.

This is just an FYI post that my updates may be erratic in the future. This situation has bumped up plans for me to get my family back to my home country. That basically means a lot of flying back and forth with stacks of forms to fill in. Which means I won't have as much time to fly spaceships, let alone write about them.

And frankly that's infuriating, since it's only recently that I've been getting a lot of traffic to my blog, and I've only just got my ship-to-ship combat eye back in. That and I might not even be able to keep up my trading well enough to keep the account running.

Ugh.

Thanks so much to the other bloggers and community members who've linked to this unfocused collection of words and sentences I call of blog. And more importantly, thanks to you the readers. Those page views are more motivating than you'll ever realize. Also, massive thanks to the followers of this blog. You guys are awesome!

I doubt the spat between Vietnam and China will get more serious. Everyone has way to much to lose, and hopefully people will be looking at their wallet balances more than their kill boards. Even so, seems like a good time to get moving on. Anyone who's tried Vietnamese food will know what a wrench leaving this place will be, but, well... better to fit that Tech 2 Damage Control Unit than lament the few extra hit points you didn't have.

Back full time in a month or two. I'm not done with Behnid, New Eden, or EVE in general. Not by a long shot. 

Good Prospects

I love frigates.

I occasionally fly bigger ships, but I get frustrated at their slow speed. I appreciate the bigger armour and higher damage output of cruisers and such, but nothing compares to the ducking, weaving hurly-burly of frigate combat.

I was very happy when the Venture came out. I spent much of my youth stuck in a mining barge, slowly chewing asteroids into money. I don't regret that time. It was peaceful, and gave me some start up money for my later endeavors. But with the Venture, it became possible to zip around asteroids, and duck in and out low-sec for better rocks.

It made mining a little more exciting, and prompted me to go back to my roots and zap rocks for a few hours. Most diverting. But not that profitable. Eventually the militias called me back, and I was shooting Matari/Amarr scum for Freedom/God.

And now, the Prospect, along with all it's glorious low-sec mining changes.

A stealthy T2 variant of the Venture, designed to sneak in, gather valuable rocks and run again. And it has a spiffy paint job!

Never before has the idea of a ninja-miner been more possible. The co-vops cloak will allow it to collect it's ore, and pass through unseen to sell its pay dirt at a the highest price. Low-sec now contains rocks which are worth coming to low-sec for.

More importantly, the new materials brings with it new industrial possibilities. You won't need to ship so much raw material from trade hubs to your production zone. In fact, if you set your prices close enough to hub prices (i.e. keep them fair), miners will simply deliver to you rather than ship all the way to  Jita.

Of course, low-sec is still low-sec, and it carries the stigma of being a hive of scum and villainy. Completely untrue, but fear of the other has been a human trait for as long as there's been humans. As such, most miners, who look to reliability of income more than anything else, may be discouraged from coming to the grey areas of space.

This leads us to what may be the biggest problem of the Prospect: can you earn enough whilst mining in low-sec?

Well, what is enough?

At a guess, to be comparable to other forms of mining, 1 PLEX a month plus ship losses. At the very least, it should be enough to replace 1 ship a week, plus profit.

The PLEX for a single capsuleer's work may be a little too much. Most dedicated miners have an Orca flying in tandem, which allows them to generate enough profit. So at a guess, a single Prospect should be able to bring in about half a PLEX a month, plus ship losses or profit.

Current PLEX price: 790million ISK
Half PLEX: 395 million ISK
Income/ day: 13 million ISK

That's the bare minimum, not including ship losses or any profit on top. We'll stick with that. Actually, that seems fairly reasonable. I was earning about 10 million with a 30 min hunt for rats in the Great Wildlands, using a Stealth bomber. That's arguably the closest analogue.

So... can the Prospect manage that?

The Devblog mentions Jaspet being one of the more profitable ores, so lets use that as an example.

Prospect Ore hold = 10,000m^3
Jaspet = 2m^3

Prospect can carry 5000 units of Jaspet. Rough market price of Jaspet is 400ISK.

Prospect hold = 5000*400 = 2,000,000 ISK.

Not a bad haul! That means to make the target ISK, the Prospect will only have to make 6.5 runs to the belts a day.

Is that good? I'd actually argue no... which is annoying, because I wanted to be optimistic about this.

A rough estimate of mining times puts the Prospect at filling its hold in at about 17 mins.

Prospect effective mining lasers = 6
Yield/laser/minute = 93.75 (roughly! my maths is not checked on this!)
Prospect yield/minute = 6*93.75 = 562.5m^3
Time to fill hold = 10,000/562.5 = 17 minutes.

Then also factor in flying time, and avoiding pirates. An anomaly on Probe scan and a Prospect on D-scan is going to be easy to find.

And also the problem of what to do with the rocks once you have them. Again, we come to the problem I faced in the Great Wildlands; carting the loot to market. You've braved pirates, gate camps and beaten off the competition, only to have a 20 jump trip back to Hek to actually make a profit.

Ok, it won't be that bad. Savvy miners will start creating ore caches in fringe systems, and pick up their haul in an indy later. Even smarter traders should already be setting up in these fringe stations. But you can  bet these entry points will be heavily camped. And it's a lot of work for 2 million profit

I'll admit, my numbers are extremely inaccurate. But the results I have now aren't all that promising.

I initially started writing this as a cautiously optimistic rebuttal to Noizy's own predictions. But now the numbers are crunched, I find myself agreeing with him. I don't think the Prospect, despite its spiffy paint job, is quite up to the task of low-sec mining.

And that's a shame. I really wanted this to be the ship to be the backbone of low-sec industry. I just don't see it having a strong enough ISK incentive for miners to go out and use it.

That said, we'll see... my own maths is hardly water-tight, and predictions on a stable economy are nearly always wrong. There are also more regular sightings of higher end ores, which should supplement income quite nicely.

Needless to say, I'll be training up Mining Frigate 5 so I can see how viable this is for the solo capsuleer. Happily, my market partner keeps my wasteful activities well funded, even though I endure his ever-rolling eyes.

Also, it has a spiffy paint job.

War Record: Cop killer

You know what's frustrating? Patrolling for Crusaders, but finding only Tribal Liberation Forces saturating the contested zones.

Fantastic news for the Republic, and I'm sure a multitude of slaves are embracing freedom for the hundredth time in the never-ending spat between Empires, but for the lowly dog-of-war looking to capture space and take Amarr bounties, it's fairly frustrating.

Still, there are still pockets of Crusade resistance. I eased into system, and warped off to capture a novice complex. I was flying the Agkulis Condor. I don't usually like to capture complexes, least of all in a brawler, but with nothing but allies around, I couldn't think of anything more productive to do.

Quick tip: If you find yourself with nothing to do, think of some way to earn a little bit of extra cash. There's an opportunity cost argument in there somewhere, but basically you should keep yourself doing something. Avoid ship spinning at all costs.

I jumped in, and Scourge rockets popped the Amarr Crusader lackey with ease. I reloaded, starting orbiting the beacon at 500m, and warmed up the weapon systems.

The timer ticked down, and it really looked like I was going to capture the point without incident. For a change, I started orbiting the complex itself rather than the warp-in beacon.

A TLF capsuleer in system commented on my ship's name, but that was the extent of interaction. Not that my ship's name was offensive or even interesting... but that was literally the only thing someone could talk about in system.

Until the police showed up...

Well, the Police Comet.

Piloted by a pirate.

I didn't have time to think about the irony of that, since it jumped straight into my complex and started shooting. Didn't even read me my rights first.

I don't know much about Comet's beyond them being Gallente, and Gallente generally means Blasters. I leapt towards my opponent, starting in a tight orbit, and widening out to the limit of my rocket range(~8km). I intended to fight in the blasters' fall-off.

Rockets flew and little pulse of light erupted from the Comet's guns. My shields took a beating, but just a few pulses of the booster brought them back up.

I took a closer look at the guns, and noticed they weren't blasters at all! He had fit rails! I re-adjusted my orbit to point blank range (500m), and damage to my shields dropped the a trickle.

My neutraliser came into play, and soon it was dead in the water, rockets hammering on its hull, rending great holes in the metal, exposing the soft innards to hard vacuum!

And soon, it was little more than a rapidly expanding cloud of debris!

Victory was mine, and 'gf's were exchanged in local. Remember your post-fight etiquette.

At which point the TLF member who commented on my ship name warped in to the complex. He inquired what 'gf' meant, and I replied 'good fight'. He then made a coarse comment, and that was it for our little interaction. His character was revealed by waiting around the complex to leech the Loyalty Points for capture.

I didn't really care. The LP is a nice bonus, but the loot the Police Comet dropped covered the price of my Condor. The thrill of bringing down a faction frigate in a T1 hull is nothing compared to a few thousand LP, and a solo kill mail is a treasure beyond that of monetary gain. And I picked up some drones too!

Wait, where did the drones come from?

Oh...

Review

I was a little lucky. The Comet was fit for kiting, and was clearly expecting a kiting Condor to match. However, had my reaction of getting into a tight orbit and hitting the scram and web on fast meant he had little chance to escape. There may be something in orbiting the complex as opposed to the warp in spot.

It was good that I checked his weapons early on in the fight. If I had remained out at scram range, eventually his higher firepower (and drones) would have carried the day. I'm pleased that I was able to adapt my strategy mid-fight.

The neutralizer worked out great as a engagement shorten-er. I doubt it was the defining victory module, but I'm reasonably confident it helped speed things up. Against laser ships it'll certainly prove more useful, but in this fight it shut down his armour repairer.

Apparently, the Comet has a complement of drones. I did not realize this, and as such, did not have my drone overview settings open. I didn't even find out about them until after the engagement, when I scooped them into cargo. The oversight here was lack of knowledge. Hardly a fatal error, but something that should be considered for future fights.

About the rather rude TLF member, well, that's an issue I had in the Crusade as well. Nothing much you can do about it. When you're a dog working with other dogs, you can't be surprised if a few of them are mangy or ridden with fleas. Just remember to take a bath regularly and don't hang around the vermin. You might catch their fleas.

Action Plan

Study Gallente ships a little more thoroughly.
Take a bath.


Overall, I'm very happy with this fight. It stands as a shining example of how good planning, and prior knowledge (with a healthy dose of luck!) can give you victory. Even if you fly a T1 attack ship against a faction frigate.

For records of other engagements click here.

The New Worm

I don't really like to speculate on ships before they're released from ship yards, but with the Mordu's Legion ships only releasing their designs and the barest information, I can't help but think of other ships I can progress into.

My switch to a missile focus actually gives a great deal of choice in terms of T2 frigates and cruisers. To put that in perspective, the entire Khanid Innovations line up falls into that bracket, giving a variety of kiters brawlers, and even more specialized ships.

The pirate ships part of that progression is getting a significant boost from the Mordu's Legion ships, and a re-design of the Gurista's fleet.

Today, we'll look at the Worm, which was actually the first pirate ship I encountered in New Eden. A friend of mine received one from a mission agent, back in the days when agents gave out ships such as this for rewards. I was flying Matari ships at the time, and he had his heart set on a Raven so we sold it. For the high price of 5 million ISK. It was a different time...

Image from http://www.eveonlineships.com/.

WORM

Gallente Frigate Bonus:
10% bonus to kinetic and thermal missile damage (was 5m3 Drone Bay Capacity per level)

Caldari Frigate Bonus:
4% bonus to all shield resistances

Role Bonus:
300% bonus to light combat drone damage and hitpoints (was 50% bonus to Rocket and Light Missile velocity)


Slot layout: 3H, 4M, 3L; 0 turrets, 2 launchers
Fittings: 40 PWG(+5), 180 CPU(+20)
Defense (shields / armor / hull) : 830(+33) / 500(-82) / 620(-3)
Capacitor (amount / recharge / cap per second) : 380(+30) / 212000 (-22375) / 1.79 (+.29)
Mobility (max velocity / agility / mass / align time): 320(+33) / 3.8(+.31) / 965000 / 5.17s(+.42)
Drones (bandwidth / bay): 10(-15) / 25
Targeting (max targeting range / Scan Resolution / Max Locked targets): 30km / 650 / 5
Sensor strength: 15
Signature radius: 40

First a little introduction to the Guristas themselves. They are pirates, and rather peculiar for most of the non-capsuleer pirates in New Eden, are pretty much just that. They attack ships for booty, run drugs and develop shanty towns as docking ports in dead space areas. They also have a lot more invested in the politics of the rest of the cluster than the other pirate factions (who tend to be religious/political/narcissistic nut jobs). They are the quintessential pirates.

They were created by two former Caldari pilots (Fatal and the Rabbit), giving them both their badge and their naming conventions. Caldari ships follow bird names, whereas Guristas ships follow reptile names. The Worm is no different. Even the name Guristas is a fusion of Calari words for 'naughty people'.

The Worm lizard is similar to a snake in that it has no limbs. This probably refers to earlier designs of the ship. Until relatively recently, all missile launchers in New Eden were internal, meaning that there were no turrets visible on missile ships. In effect, the Worm appeared limbless. A nice little word-play, and one we'd expect from the less-serious Gursitas!

Although the ship is bonused for missiles, it would be a mistake to imagine that being its focus. The latest iteration of the ship (assuming max skills) will have an effective launcher count of 3. However, with it's role bonus, it will have an effective drone count of 8 light drones! That is a significant bang for only two real drones on the field, and even these two will be extremely tough to knock out.

Before the Worm used to be slow and well shielded, relying on great damage projection from missiles and drones to do damage. This has changed. It's base speed, whilst still not that close to that of Matari ships, is now at least comparable to armour vessels. In practice it may be faster. Thick shield resistances means that low slots can be used for propulsion upgrades, similar to how the Breacher tends to be faster on the field than the Rifter.

It's slot layout is similar to that of the Firetail, giving great flexibility in terms of fitting. 4 mids make for full tackle plus shield tank, and the lows give a lot of options in terms of both a light armour tank or hull modification. This is all topped off by a utility high slot.

Predicted tactics

Expect everything.

This ship is a fearsome brawler, with a great passive shield tanking bonus. Even blaster boats are going to find it difficult to punch holes in this little frigate. It's cap-less weaponry and utility high for a neutralizer means that anything that does get close is likely to be dead in the water. Attempts to kite this frigate will still have to deal with it's drones, the real source of firepower.

It can be a very tough, if slow kiter. Similar to a kiting Tristan, the majority of the damage will be coming from it's drones, with maybe some Light missile fire. A competent brawler should be able to close the distance easily, but again, those high resist shields will still cause problems.

And to further illustrate how tough this ship will be: it has the highest sensor strength and longest target lock range of the pirate frigates. It'll be a little harder to ECM or Sensor damp this ship effectively than others.

Counters

Usual counters apply to either kiting or brawling vessels. It's a tough ship, but it's conventionally tough, meaning there won't be any nasty surprises as with the new Succubus or Cruor.

It's mobility is it's weakness. To get decent kiting speeds it will have to sacrifice damage or toughness, and even if brawling, it will have a tough time catching kiting vessels outside of its warp disruption range. This means that disengagement should be relatively easy for kiters (and even some brawlers!). Don't wait too long to disengage, as the Worm still packs a punch.

I don't recommend shooting its drones. Each one will be as tough as shooting down 4 regular drones, and they'll have at least 2 more in reserve. However, this would be a good time to find out if Tracking disruptors worked on drones. Even a single disrupted drone would drastically reduce the firepower of the worm.

Ultra-fast ships with low signatures (i.e. Interceptors) and long range should be able to whittle it down, and speed tank both drone and missile damage. This is risky... I recommend bringing an active tank, as you will take damage.

Training ship

If you're looking to learn drones, missiles and shield tanking, the best learning ship is not Caldari or Galente. In terms of spirit, the Minmatar Breacher shares more in common with the Worm. Both ships have shield tank and missile bonuses, and a drone complement. Both have flexible kiting and brawling fits, and they even share a slot layout!

A close second would be the Tristan. Whilst the Tristan does have similar flexibility to the Worm, and has much more drone focus than the Breacher, it's generally armour tanked, and tends to work best with hybrids.

Final thoughts

This is an incredibly flexible vessel, and definitely worth the space in your hangar. Like I said, it's conventionally good, and doesn't need to rely on any special tricks to be successful. If you're looking for a solid reliable ship, which ca re-fit easily into different strategies, this is your ship!