Blog Banter 52: Living Space

So this blog banter involves analysis of a chart.

Be still my inquisitive heart!

For the past four and a half years, the graph has hovered around that 30,000 mark; it is, for all intents and purposes, a plateau. But everything must come to an end sooner or later and that is what this blog banter is about.

What's on the other side of that plateau? 

Is there any path for CCP to follow to raise those numbers upwards for a sustained period, or is EVE going to enter a decline to lower logged in numbers from this point? How soon will we see an end to this plateau? Months? Years? Or will you argue that 'never' is a possibility? Or you can look at the root causes of the plateau and tackle the question if it could have been avoided or shortened if CCP had taken different actions in the past. 

Also, what would EVE be like with an order of magnitude fewer or more players?

Living space

Most of the participants in the banter have reached the conclusion that seems obvious to anyone of a marketing mind. They look at it as a supply and demand problem of capsuleers. My trade servant would interpret it the same way too.

I, despite dealing with such matters on a daily basis, look at it in another fashion. It'll probably be completely wrong, but if you take into account the current plan for development, it might seem to make sense.. Let us talk of living space.

New Eden is a closed system.

Despite our attempts at colonization of wormholes, the cluster as we know it roughly the same size as it was all those years ago, when the first human emerged from the Eve Gate. Humanity spread to all parts of the cluster. The first capsuleer then emerged from the chaotic mass of humanity, and they, in turn, spread across the cluster.

Which is why the graph has flattened out.

Populations rise when there is an abundance of resources in comparison to the populations needs. Once the population increases to meet the availability of resources, it naturally starts to plateau. Put simply there isn't enough space for it to grow anymore.

Capsuleers have grown bigger than New Eden.

I know most of you are reaching for your keyboards to talk about the vast tracks of uninhabited null security space. You are quite correct. However, due to the lack of protection in null-sec, that space can only support a certain amount of capsuleers. The losses in ships and structures required to live in null-sec means that, despite the abundance of resources, the current population is all it can support. The accessibility of resources restrict growth here, as it does in Low-sec and wormhole space.

This is population equilibrium.

Whilst some capsuleers rise to power, others are forced into decline. Titans of industry will inevitably lose interest in manufacture, leaving space for others to grow. The new capsuleers, in their infancy, are often strangled by the competition. Most of you have seen this... friends falling to a indefinite sleep, minds dulled by the daily grind to survive. Young capsuleers bio-massed before they can come to terms with the struggle.

Yes, there are more resources out there. Wormholes and null sec systems go unexploited. But the number of capsuleers eager to work in these areas are already at maximum.

New Eden is at it's capsuleer limit. What can the various councils and space developers do?

New space.

Now you might understand why the proposed changes in technology are necessary. The Empires can feel the capsuleers claustrophobic battles with each other over the hotly contested resources of the cluster. The promised 'race for prestige' of building the first capsuleer gate is little more than a distraction, keeping capsuleers happy until they can spill out into new worlds, and slake their ravenous appetites for ISK and ore, far away from civilization.

Which brings me to another point.

Populations only grow when they are secure enough to do so. If you want a population increase, you must either increase resources, or reduce the rate at which resources are consumed. Or lost.

If CONCORD had it in their mind to increase the borders of protected space, I would predict another increase in population... at least for a while. Too much safety prompts stagnation and decay. Chaos in null sec and low sec is the stirring current that keeps New Eden alive.

New space, with a different set of laws, can maintain this chaos, whilst providing more safely harvested resources.

So what would New Eden look like with more capsuleers?

Depends on the living space. More capsuleers in current New Eden would see space ablaze with fiery wrecks, as desperate capsuleers feuded over shortening resources. Eventually those immortals unable or unwilling to compete would join the Sleepers in their quiet stations, rarely waking. And the population will decline.

So there's a slightly different way to look at the issue, if indeed it is an issue. If I'm correct, New Eden's capsuleer population will experience steady growth followed by another plateau once the first jump gates are created.

In the mean time, too much stability can lead to stagnation... just look at the Jovians. Go and try something chaotic today. Stir the alchemical pot of New Eden a little.

For other thoughts on it, have a look here.

Strategikon: Things to do whilst out of the pod

Tragically it's getting close to a month since I've been out in space.

Before I get into details, thank you all for the interest in the past series of posts, and special thanks to Kirith Kodachi for the referral. I've never had such a response! Also thanks to the commenters bringing up good points. I appreciate your insights.

Not really much I can say about not getting into space. I'm now married to a nice girl I found in Metropolis (probably tarnishing my reputation on Khanid even further), and despite my market servant doing the bulk of actual business, I've been kept busy doing administrative work for my support networks.

I can't see myself getting free from the clutches of my work desk any time soon, but that doesn't mean I can't participate in the greater universe around me. Professional development doesn't necessarily take place behind the pilots yoke!

Here's some things I've been doing, and can provide a little 'strategy' for those of you with similarly limited space time. They usually take about 10mins of activity, so are great for short Quafe breaks.

Blogs

Reading (and writing!) blogs are a great way to develop your knowledge of New Eden. Forcing yourself to actively consider tactics and strategies will give you a better understanding of them. There's no substitute for real experience, but prior planning and preparation prevents pathetically poor performance. That's the 7 Ps my old drill instructor taught me (although his language was much more colourful).

It's also a way to keep you connected to the community. We may be alone in the pods, but isolation will quickly lead to you withdrawing from New Eden, and joining the Sleepers in their wormhole tombs. Keeping those lines of communications open will keep you rooted.

To get you started, take a look at the list of Wiser Pilots on the left. They have all helped me a great deal.

Ship fitting

Now is a good time to play around with fits. If you have access to a ship, it's  very tempting just to throw on modules and charge ahead in the name of experimentation. To avoid costly errors, simply spend a few minutes playing around with fitting tools.

The benefit to this is greater understanding of the fits you run. You'll have much more appreciation for the limits of your vessels capabilities. Once in a blue moon you'll discover an effective fit that no one else has found!

But don't count on it. A good place to start is Battleclinic. Find the fits there, and start swapping modules, rigs or implants to see how it changes.

Spreadsheets

You could comment that this is a product of sitting in a managers chair for too long, but spreadsheeting is a hobby I picked up long before I had any networks to tend. And yes, I am a massive nerd.

Really this is a way to plan out trading, PI or other industrial pursuits, before you go and lose a lot of ISK. Certain merchant monarchs have a point that time spent on spreadsheets is better spent in the market stall, but chained to the desk as I am kept from the vibrancy of the trading floor.

It can be as simple as finally calculating the exact tax on your buy/sell orders, or working out projected profit from PI. It's rewarding, and again, deepens your understanding of New Eden... and is a skill you can transfer to other occupations, should space pilot prove too dull for you!

Theory crafting and project research

Basically the culmination of everything above.

Projects in particular can take a bit of research. A great example of a project blogger is Gevlon Goblin. Sometimes wrong, sometimes right, his projects are always revealing and illuminating. You can do the same.

• Pick a project.
• Read about it.
• Plan for it before (maybe with a spreadsheet!)
• Test it in space
• Write about it.

Of all the steps above, only one absolutely requires you to be in space, and the steps prior to getting there make sure you get the most from your time in the pod.

Hopefully that will help anyone stuck in the office like myself. 

Deiknymi - Rifter: Final Thoughts

Kidrith Kodachi put it best when he discussed the Rifter:

"So to summarize, we have a ship that doesn't do the most damage or have the most tank, but is superior in damage type selection and tracking at short range or alpha strike at long range. In other words, a Frigate experience in hard mode."
 - Kidrith Kodachi

He's absolutely correct. The Rifter is renowned, partly because it is the first frigate many pilots engaged in capsuleer combat in. It was my first frigate, in what seemed like eons ago. I still remember hunting pirates in the belts of Metropolis, back when it was considered a legitimate career. I had a lot of fun in that frigate, and I think it's still in a hangar somewhere, gathering dust.

However, it is no longer the easy to fit and new pilot friendly hull it once was. The other frigates, with clearly defined roles and specialties, are now much more accessible. That's a good thing, and under no circumstances should a vessel claim the monopoly on new players as the Rifter once did.

The Rifter in it's current incarnation requires far too much piloting skill and knowledge to be as effective as other craft, at least for newer pilots.

To be a effective Rifter pilot you must have knowledge of:

• Other crafts likely lowest resistance.
• Other crafts likely operational range (tracking and falloff )
• Damage reduction through range control 
• Damage reduction through tracking advantage
• Charge management (of about 6-18 charges)
• Damage absorption through repair
• Damage absorption through buffer

To put that in context, here is the list for the Kontos, kiting Executioner:

• Capacitor management
• Damage reduction through range control
• Other crafts likely operational range

With relatively low firepower to damage absorption ratio, the Rifter's advantages are eclipsed by the skill required to take full use of them... and again, the Slasher outperforms it in all roles due to it's higher speed, and better fitting options.

Should it be fixed?

I think so. The argument that it's still viable is a non-argument. Yes, you can still achieve victory in it, but it will be a much harder won victory than if you simply used a different hull.

To that end, I recommend either the double-bonused version, or simply adding a fourth turret. The increased damage will make it more forgiving to pilots learning how to fly, and can be put to devastating effect by more experienced ones.

The usual counters are still there: range control, tracking disruption, and other e-war.

Gosh that was fun!

This thought experiment has inspired me to go out and see, armed with the knowledge I now have, if the Rifter is actually as viable as people claim. And I've spent enough time just thinking about them. I'm itching to get behind the pilots yoke, and load those autocanons.

So, as I love to be prepared, I'll start looking at resistances, and appropriate ammunition types to use. I'll post that in the coming weeks. For now... I have a wedding to attend.

My wedding, in fact!

Deikynmi: Rifter - Proposals (3rd Round): 4 Turret Rifter

In the final round of proposals, we will consider the Rifter with an additional turret.

This is not without precedent. The Kestrel, common favorite of the Caldari frigates, fields four launcher hard points, to make up for that particular weapon systems lack of punch. Projectiles have a similar, if not as pronounced, weakness.

It can be argued that Matari ships are known for their utility high slots, and that the Rifter should reflect this. Well, looking at the Amarr frigate line  up, we see utility highs, which are missing in the cruiser line up. In the Caldari frigate set we see the Condor with the utility high. Gallente frigates have access to two frigates with utility highs. What I mean by pointing this out, is that nearly all races can claim propensity to utility high slots, and we don't need to shackle ourselves to such a non-tradition.

Four turrets also neatly fixes a minor problem with the current Rifter: charge management. Flying an ancilliary repair, rocket launcher fit Rifter, requires you to carry around 6 different types of charges (EMP/Phased Plasma/Fusion/Barrage/nanite paste/rockets), to make full use of the projectiles damage type selection. That can extend to 18 if you want to maximize the use of the rocket launcher as well. Compare that to an Incursus: a maximum of 5, for a cap boosted ancillary repair unit fit... which is a little unlikely to see.

Fitting does not have to be changed. Please feel free to check my maths, but Powergrid and CPU should already be sufficient to fit that extra turret. Many pilots already treat it as a missile launcher spot, and using 150mm ACs actually makes the fitting more generous.

It also becomes an excellent ship for rookie pilots. They only have to train one weapon system to become proficient in Rifter piloting, giving them more time to develop the navigation skills, vital to the Rifter's style of play.

The Wolf already supports the Rifter fitting 4 turrets, so no work would have to be done to manipulate ship models.

Speaking of Assault Frigates, now we have a good lineage leading into both Wold and Jaguar. The Wolf leads on from the Rifter to be a simple brute force weapon, with the Jaguar following from the Slasher, as a more elegant, cunning ship.

The Republic has the Slasher for unorthodox tactics, and the Breacher for reliable payloads.The Rifter sits in the middle,as the quintessential Minmatar ship, at first barbaric and gaudy sporting so many weapons, but with the skill and finesse to put lie to claims of savagery.

Thematically, I think this suits the Rifter's character. It should be the hull of the Brutor, all guns and tough armour, blended with low animal cunning, snarling and confounding enemies of the Republic through agility. Aggressive, yet balanced.

But let's put aside the poetry in favour of numbers.

Proposal 4: Damage application bonus only

Tracking 7.5%
Fall off 7.5%

No. Turrets = 4

New DPS: 130
New range: 0.7km + 7.6km (Rep EMP)
                  0.7km + 11.9km (Barrage)

Slight buff to damage, but a significant buff to damage application. See the previous post for a more accurate look at the fall-off benefits.

It's still outgunned by blaster boats, and still out-ranged by pulse laser boats. However, it retains the Rifter's advantage of maneuverability, and flexible engagement options.

It's able to more effectively kite blasters using either Barrage or Faction close range ammunition. It will retain it's point blank advantage against pulses, provided the pilot can maintain transversal.

Compared to the Breacher, it has similar firepower and range, but with the Breacher putting out more reliable missile damage, but without the Drone management. It provides more buffer tank, but less active repair.

Compared to the Slasher, it offers a lot less flexibility in fitting options, but it can be argued that the Rifter lost that particular advantage a long time ago. It gains in firepower application and brute force, as opposed to the Slashers evasion and dirty E-War tricks.

Finally, it opens up another interesting fit for high Alpha artillery wolf packs. It would not be so good for solo, as the fitting mods needed to fit 4 artillery turrets would lose too much tank.

However, whilst damage projection may make me, who prefers kiting, quite happy, it's not compelling enough to newer pilots.

Instead, lets look at keeping the same bonus from the current Rifter, but with 4 turrets:

Proposal 5: Damage bonus, 4 guns

Damage 5% / level
Tracking 7.5% / level

Old DPS: 124
New DPS: 164

Slightly better damage than the double bonused proposal in the first round, better damage application on tight orbits. It's more limited in high slot variation, but again, the Slasher is better able to use such tactics.

To me this is the perfect Rifter. It has enough firepower to place it as a damage oriented combat vessel. It has a distinct role of shock trooper. It follows the Thrasher tradition of crashing into combat, and unloading storms of metal into space, but on a more flexible craft.

This makes it an excellent terrorist/freedom fighter vessel. It can attack with the conviction of the pilots belief in his cause, and withstand a

The only problem with this is the large alpha from artillery Rifters. That said, I think that also suits the Rifter's image, and the Matari guerrilla style of combat. Warp in, fire a salvo, disengage.

We don't need to discuss the double bonused 4-turret Rifter. For the firepower of that, only look at the Wolf.

Next time, we'll look at my concluding thoughts.

In the mean time, please, discuss the possibilities above. Do you think they go too far, or not far enough? Are there any glaring problems I missed? Have your own suggestions? Let me know.

Deiknymi: Rifter Proposals (2nd Round) Fall-off bonus

Fall off is a difficult topic to think about, and the maths of it quite beyond my feeble arithmetic skills.

However, in this modern age of information sharing, I can use the work of others to support my own investigations. Thanks to Eve University for a most informative page!

Proposal 3: Fall-off bonus

Damage:  5%/level
Fall off:    7.5%/level

Old range: 0.7+5.5km (Rep EMP)
                 0.7+8.3km (Barrage)

New range: 0.7km + 7.6km (Rep EMP)
                  0.7km + 11.9km (Barrage)

For a better understanding of how this effects damage projection, we will look at some arbitrary ranges, and see the projected DPS for each. Bear in mind, my maths is quite bad, and this are only rough estimates. If you'd like to do the calculations yourself, please do, and I'll update this page! This is only for auto canons.

The four ranges will be about half warp scrambler range, then about scrambler range, overheated web range,  a close kiter range (about the Kontos operating range) and then warp disruptor range.

One more thing: these calculations will also apply to both the Slasher and Firetail.

Forgive my wobbly lines. My maths is far from perfect.

As a little aside, it does neatly show what ammunition you should be using at each range. About 5km is the turning point. I'll make another graph later on to show a comparison to blasters and pulses. Then I can more thoroughly explain Rifter tactics.

On with the bonus.

There is much greater damage application, but with the tracking problems mentioned before. Good firepower. It certainly has the edge over blaster fit frigates, but slightly less of an edge over laser boats. It would certainly give scram range kiters a shock!

It even has the option of using close range ammunition against scram kiters. Interestingly enough, the bonused close range ammo almost mirrors the DPS curve of unbonused Barrage.

Artillery Rifters would be even a huge amount of kiting ability, giving fairly high firepower into ranges only matched by specialist range ships. They will comfortably operate outside of scrambler range, and above dirsputor ranges.

I like this idea, but since the Slasher is faster, it could make much better use of the kiting range increase. It's a great bonus, but on the wrong hull. There also isn't a significant cost to using artillery on the Rifter. The fitting is a little too comfortable. The Slasher would have to make a lot more concessions in fitting modifications, meaning a lot more balance.

I'm also concerned that the loss of tracking would pretty much negate the benefit of the increased range.

There are variations on this bonus, but then we're just playing with numbers. It doesn't really capture the spirit of what the Rifter should be, or what pilots should be encouraged to do whilst flying one. The spirit of the Rifter is not in delicate kiting. The Rifter should be more of a rough and tumble fighter.

The biggest problem with this, however, is the Breacher. It's faster, and able to put it's theoretical dps out to better ranges (about 15km with Javelin rockets). Taking the Rifter out of competition with the Slasher, only to put it in competition with the Breacher should not be the result of any changes made.

I'd like to consider a slightly more radical proposal: The four gun Rifter. We'll look at that next time.

In the meantime, please post your thoughts about the above. Agree? Disagree? Think I should go back to the Academy to re-take mathematics? Let me know.